Prema brojevima: tržište Bitcoin medvjeda bez BitMEX-a

Since the inception of bitcoin, bull and bear markets have been a natural part of its growth. However, like with anything that lasts a long time, the market has evolved, and so has the concentration of various things in the market. One of these changes has come in the form of the funding rates and what portion of it was controlled by different exchanges. In the last bear, BitMEX had proven to be a significant part of the bear market, but things have changed.

BitMEX pada dominantnosti

Now, derivatives have become more popular among bitcoin and crypto users over the past year. Nevertheless, they remain very complex to the point that the instruments used to fund calculations by different platforms can vary widely. This even pushes further the collateral structure of the derivatives on each platform.

Još 2017/2018, kada je medvjeđe tržište zavladalo, BitMEX je bio na čelu tržišta derivata. Izvještaj Arcane Research-a koristi prvih 318 dana nakon početka medvjeđeg tržišta 2018. godine, gdje je otkriveno da je kripto berza činila više od polovine ukupnog volumena derivata u to vrijeme. Takođe je vidio da su akumulirane stope finansiranja dostigle -0.46%, što danas govori mnogo drugačiju priču.

Stope finansiranja iz dva vrha ciklusa | Izvor: Arcane Research

However, over the years, the crypto exchange has lost its dominance of the derivatives market share. As more prominent competitors popped up, BitMEX has seen its share of the bitcoin open interest drop to 3.3%, and its accumulated funding rate drop another 1.46% in the present-day market. This means that the crypto exchange is now much less important to the bitcoin bear market than it used to be.

Uticaj na Bitcoin

Looking back at the performance of bitcoin in the perpetual markets, it seems to be the opposite of the last bear market. The first example of this is that back in the 2018 bear market, BitMEX funding rates sat at 0.46%. At this time, the funding rates were very volatile, and the shorts were mostly paying the shorts.

BTC se oporavlja na $19,100 | Izvor: BTCUSD na TradingView.com

Međutim, na današnjem tržištu, slučaj je bio obrnut. Izvještaj pokazuje da bi skraćivanje BTCUSDT perp para od 10. novembra donijelo povrat od 5.25% od danas. Ovo je u suprotnosti sa trendom iz 2018. godine, a sada dugi ljudi plaćaju kratke hlače.

Također je važno imati na umu da su stope finansiranja sa posljednjeg medvjeđeg tržišta zapravo bile nestabilnije nego danas. Na primjer, BitMEX je dostigao dno na -12.15% u akumuliranim stopama finansiranja tokom vrhunca ciklusa 2019.

Istaknuta slika iz Coingapea, grafikoni iz Arcane Research i TradingView.com

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