Pad dionica Moderne raste—ali stručnjak izjavljuje da bi rezultati vakcine protiv gripa mogli pokazati "superiornost"

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In a glimmer of hope for one of this year’s worst-performing stocks, Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Harrison projected incoming results for one of Moderna’s flu vaccine candidates would likely be a promising development for the firm’s struggling stock, joining a growing crop of experts looking to Moderna’s potential suite of offerings—and not necessarily its Covid-19 vaccine—as a catalyst for growth.

ključne činjenice

In a Tuesday evening note to clients, Harrison said phase 2 trial data for Moderna’s flu vaccine in the coming weeks would “likely demonstrate non-inferiority and even a trend toward superiority” relative to competing products on the market—an improvement from December results Harrison called “undifferentiated” from biotech firm Sanofi’s flu vaccine.

The bullish reading follows a steep drop for Moderna shares, which fell 4% Wednesday to $138 and have plummeted nearly 42% this year, becoming the S&P 500’s third-worst-performing stock—behind only Etsy (down 43%) and PayPal (down 44%).

Harison nije preporučio investitorima da kupe dionice, umjesto toga ponovio je neutralan rejting, ali nova ciljna cijena kompanije od 213 dolara implicira da bi dionice mogle naglo porasti za oko 49% u narednoj godini. 

Other analysts are more bullish: In a Friday note, Piper Sandler’s Edward Tenthoff reiterated his $348 price target, a staggering 150% above current prices, after Moderna announced three new vaccine candidates under development—for herpes, the virus that causes Shines and one targeting antigens for cancer.

Tenthoff je rekao investitorima da je uspjeh Modernine vakcine protiv Covid-19 umanjio finansijski rizik povezan s razvojem novih vakcina koristeći istu tehnologiju i reklamirao je "široku" razvojnu strategiju kompanije - na koju su drugi analitičari također ukazali kao na izvor mogućnosti. 

On Tuesday, Moderna initiated phase three trials for a vaccine targeting the respiratory syncytial virus, which causes a respiratory illness akin to the flu and Covid; the firm also has an HIV vaccine in the works.

Iznenađujuća činjenica

Moderna has plunged 71.5% from an all-time closing high of $484 on August 9, wiping out more than $140 billion from the firm’s market capitalization, which now stands at less than $56 billion.

Ključna pozadina

Founded in 2010, Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Moderna spent nearly a decade developing the technology for its messenger RNA vaccines, which tell the body to produce part of a pathogen to trigger an immune response (unlike traditional vaccines that instead use a piece of the pathogen). Once the pandemic hit, the company doubled down on the effort and in November 2020 filed for an emergency use authorization for its Covid-19 vaccine. The shots have proven to be a massive boon for businesses heading up their development, but Moderna shares have struggled in recent months as critics increasingly question whether or not sales of Covid-19 vaccines alone will prove a viable revenue stream in years to come. 

Što gledati

Moderna bi trebala objaviti svoju zaradu za četvrti kvartal u četvrtak ujutro. Analitičari očekuju da će kompanija sa sjedištem u Massachusettsu najvjerovatnije prijaviti svoj prvi kvartalni profit ikada i prihod od 6.8 ​​milijardi dolara, 1,090% više nego godinu dana ranije. 

Veliki broj

$5 billion. That’s nearly how much third-quarter revenue Moderna reported in November, falling notably short of average analyst projections calling for $6.2 billion. 

Daljnje čitanje

Krah dionica Moderne: gubici od 140 milijardi dolara dok insajderi prodaju milione dolara u dionicama (Forbes)

Krah dionica Moderne se pojačava: gubici od 130 milijardi dolara (Forbes)

Pfizer pokrenuo pad zaliha od 28 milijardi dolara nakon upozorenja da bi prodaja vakcine protiv Covida mogla razočarati ove godine (Forbes)