Eter (ETH) gained 5.6% on Dec. 20 after testing the $1,150 support the previous day. Still, a bearish trend prevails, forming a three-week-long descending channel, a price action attributed to expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
Jim Bianco, head of institutional research firm Bianco Research, said on Dec. 20 that the Fed will keep the economy tightening in 2023. Later that day, Japan’s central bank effectively raised interest rates, far later than its global counterparts. The unexpected move made analysts more bearish toward risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Ethereum might have caught some tailwind after the global payment processor Visa proposed a solution to allow automatic funding from Ethereum wallets. Auto-payments for recurring bills aren’t possible for self-custodial wallets, so Visa proposed relying on smart contracts, known as “account abstraction.” Curiously, the concept emerged in 2015 with Vitalik Buterin.
The most pressing issue, however, is regulation. On Dec. 19, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee reintroduced legislation aimed at creating innovation offices within government agencies dealing with financial services. According to North Carolina Representative Patrick McHenry, companies could apply for an “enforceable compliance agreement,” with offices located in agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Consequently, investors believe Ether could revisit sub-$1,000 prices as the DXY dollar index loses strength while the 10-year U.S. reasury yields show higher demand for protection. Trader CryptoCondom expects the next couple of months to be extremely bearish for crypto markets.
Algos see $ DXY down & bid up crypto. BOJ overnight isn’t bullish…it’s a sign of things breaking.
DXY ⬇️ & 10Y ⬆️ = Recession
I will be shorting the market waiting for three digit $ ETH.
Crypto IS the future of France but the next 2-3m will feel like being in the Gulag instead. pic.twitter.com/nLKqtNz3C3— CryptoCondom (@crypto_condom) Decembar 20, 2022
Pogledajmo Eterski derivati data to understand if the bearish macroeconomic movement has negatively impacted investors’ sentiment.
The recent bounce above $1,200 did not instill bullishness
Trgovci na malo obično izbjegavaju kvartalne fjučerse zbog njihove razlike u cijeni u odnosu na spot tržišta. U međuvremenu, profesionalni trgovci preferiraju ove instrumente jer sprečavaju fluktuaciju stopa finansiranja u trajni fjučers ugovor.
Dvomjesečna premija fjučersa na godišnjem nivou trebala bi se trgovati između +4% i +8% na zdravim tržištima kako bi se pokrili troškovi i povezani rizici. Kada se fjučersi trguju sa diskontom u odnosu na regularna spot tržišta, to pokazuje nedostatak povjerenja kupaca s polugom, što je indikator medvjeda.
The chart above shows that derivatives traders continue to use more leverage for short (bear) positions as the Ether futures premium remains negative. Still, the absence of leverage buyers’ demand does not mean traders expect further adverse price action.
Iz tog razloga, trgovci bi trebali analizirati Tržišta Eterovih opcija kako bi shvatili da li investitori određuju veće šanse za iznenađujuće nepovoljna kretanja cijena.
Options traders not keen on offering downside protection
Delta kos od 25% je znak koji govori kada market mejkeri i arbitražni stolovi prenaplaćuju za zaštitu nagore ili nadole.
Na medvjeđim tržištima, investitori opcija daju veće šanse za pad cijena, uzrokujući porast indikatora skew iznad 10%. S druge strane, bikovska tržišta imaju tendenciju da dovedu indikator iskrivljenosti ispod -10%, što znači da su medvjeđe put opcije diskontirane.
The delta skew increased after Dec. 15 from a fearful 14% against the protective put options to the current 20%. The movement signaled that options traders became even less comfortable with downside risks.
The 60-day delta skew signals whales and market makers are reluctant to offer downside protection, which seems natural considering the three-week-long descending channel.
In a nutshell, both options and futures markets point to pro traders not trusting the recent bounce above $1,200. The present trend favors Ether bears because the odds of the Fed maintaining its balance sheet reduction program seem high, which is destructive for risk markets.
Ovdje prikazani stavovi, razmišljanja i mišljenja samo su autora i ne odražavaju nužno ili ne predstavljaju stavove i mišljenja Cointelegrafa.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-bounces-above-1-2k-but-derivatives-metrics-show-traders-fear-a-collapse