Likvidnost bitkoina na 10-mjesečnom niskom nivou usred bankarske krize u SAD

While Bitcoin’s price has recovered since its March lows, topping out near $28,900, the crisis that caused the initial dip still poses concerns for the market.

The closure of Silvergate’s SEN and Signature’s Signet network in early March has exposed the crypto market to low liquidity risks.

“Liquidity is king,” an adage in trading circles, is an apt way to describe its importance. It describes a market’s ability to facilitate conversion between an asset to fiat currency.

Poor liquidity around an asset leads to market inefficiencies where traders lose money due to events like thin order books, slippage, and larger spreads. It can also cause serious volatility and deter sophisticated investors from placing trades.

Kaiko’s head of research Clara Medalie told Dešifriraj that the current situation is “pretty dangerous” and could manifest in massive price volatility in both directions.

“A drop in liquidity certainly helps traders to the upside, but there is always eventually a downside,” said Medalie. “The moment buy pressure subsides, anything can happen to price.”

Crypto’s liquidity crisis

Kriza likvidnosti se prvi put manifestovala padom od 200 miliona dolara u dubini tržišta od 1% nakon što je Silvergateova mreža SEN zatvorena, kao što je identifikovano u Kaiko-ovom najnovijem istraživanju.

Dubina tržišta od 1% izračunava se zbrajanjem ponuda i upita unutar 1% srednje cijene za 10 najboljih kriptovaluta. Ako je dubina tržišta dovoljna i knjige naloga su pretrpane oko tržišne cijene, to smanjuje volatilnost na tržištu.

Dubina tržišta za Bitcoin i Ethereum i dalje je pala za 16.12% i 17.64%, respektivno, u odnosu na njihov mjesečni nivo otvaranja. Kaiko analitičar Conor Ryder napisao je da smo „trenutno na najnižem nivou likvidnosti na BTC tržištima u posljednjih 10 mjeseci, čak niže nego nakon FTX-a“.

The liquidity crunch is also causing inefficiencies such as high slippage and larger spreads. Coinbase’s BTC-USD pair currently exhibits nearly three times higher slippage than at the start of March.

Slippage refers to the price at which an order is placed and the final price once that order is actually executed. In low liquidity environments, the difference between these two orders can be much larger than usual.

The most liquid pair in the crypto market, the BTC-USDT pair on Binance, also suffered a blow after the exchange ended its zero-free program.

As a result, the pair’s liquidity depleted by 70% as market makers moved to greener pastures.

These conditions have deterred market makers and sophisticated day traders from placing trades because of the additional costs incurred due to market inefficiencies, worsening the low-liquidity environment.

The need for fiat on-ramps

The market share of fiat dollars and stablecoins has also drastically shifted, with stablecoin volumes on centralized exchanges rising from a 77% share of volumes to 95% in just over a year.

The trend accelerated swiftly after the closure of crypto banking networks.

While shifting to stablecoin trading pairs does not create an issue for medium to small-scale investors, it can become a problem for more sophisticated traders.

Medalie explained that USD networks are essential to traders, who are required to settle their traders daily.

“Stablecoins are not ideal from a risk management perspective, especially to settle at the end of the day or week,” she said. “But if banks close and don’t process transactions, then stablecoins are the next best alternative.”