Bitcoin medvjeđe tržište će trajati 'još 2-3 mjeseca najviše'

Although the majority of the bear market is already likely behind Bitcoin, it may still see more suffering in the near future.

Philip Swift, a well-known on-chain analyst whose data source, LookIntoBitcoin, analyzes several of the most well-known Bitcoin market indicators, has come to various conclusions, including this one.

Swift, who co-founded trading platform Decentrader with analyst Filbfilb, thinks that despite the present price pressure, Bitcoin will soon break out of its most recent macro downturn. Swift provided new insights into what the data is showing experts and what traders should pay attention to in a new interview with Cointelegraph.

How long will the average hodler need to wait until the tide turns and Bitcoin comes storming back from two-year lows?

You’ve pointed out that some on-chain metrics such as HODL Waves and RHODL Ratio are hinting at a BTC bottom. Could you expand on this? Are you confident that history will repeat this cycle?

Philip Swift (PS): I believe we are now at the point of maximum opportunity for Bitcoin. There are numerous key metrics on LookIntoBitcoin that indicate we are at major cycle lows.

Vidimo vrhunac procenta dugoročnih vlasnika (1yr HODL Wave), što se obično dešava u dubinama medvjeđeg tržišta jer ovi dugoročni vlasnici ne žele da uzmu profit dok cijena ne poraste.

Ovo ima za posljedicu ograničavanje raspoložive ponude na tržištu, što može uzrokovati povećanje cijene kada se potražnja na kraju ponovo pokrene.

Bitcoin HODL Waves grafikon. Izvor: LookIntoBitcoin

Takođe vidimo da metrika poput RHODL omjera pada u svoje akumulacijske zone, što pokazuje do koje mjere je euforija sada isušena s tržišta. Ovo uklanjanje pozitivnog sentimenta je neophodno da bi se formirao donji raspon za BTC.

RHODL Ratio naglašava da je osnova troškova nedavnih kupovina Bitcoina znatno niža od cijena plaćenih prije 1-2 godine kada je tržište bilo očigledno euforično i očekivalo +100 dolara za Bitcoin. Tako da nam može reći kada se tržište resetiralo u pripremi za početak sljedećeg ciklusa.

Bitcoin RHODL omjer grafikona. Izvor: LookIntoBitcoin

How is this bear market different from previous BTC cycles? Is there any silver lining?

PS: Bio sam tu za medvjeđe tržište 2018/19 i zapravo je prilično sličan osjećaj. Svi turisti su otišli i samo su vam ostali posvećeni strastveni kripto ljudi u prostoru. Ovi ljudi će imati najviše koristi u sljedećoj berzi – sve dok ne polude trgovati s polugom.

Što se tiče srebrnih obloga, imam par! Prvo, mi smo zapravo pravi put kroz tržišni ciklus, a vjerovatno i kroz većinu ovog medvjeđeg tržišta. Grafikon ispod prikazuje performanse Bitcoina u svakom ciklusu od prepolovljenja, a mi smo već oko kapitulacionih tačaka prethodna dva ciklusa.

Uporedni grafikon bikovskog tržišta bikova. Izvor: Philip Swift/Decentrader

Drugo, makro kontekst je sada veoma drugačiji. Iako je za bikove bilo bolno vidjeti da su Bitcoin i kriptovalute tako u velikoj mjeri povezani sa tradicionalnim tržištima koja se bore, vjerujem da ćemo uskoro vidjeti ponudu za Bitcoin jer povjerenje u (veće) vlade prelazi naniže iznad tačke bez povratka.

Vjerujem da će ovaj nedostatak povjerenja u vlade i njihove valute stvoriti navalu ka privatnim “tvrdim” sredstvima, s tim da će Bitcoin biti glavni korisnik tog trenda 2023. godine.

What other key on-chain metrics would you also recommend to keep an eye on to spot the bottom?

PS: Budite oprezni sa ličnostima na Twitteru koje prikazuju Bitcoin grafikone na lancu isječene egzotičnim/čudnim varijablama. Takvi podaci vrlo rijetko dodaju bilo kakvu istinsku vrijednost priči koju pokazuju glavni ključni pokazatelji, a ove ličnosti to rade samo kao način da privuku pažnju, a ne da istinski pokušavaju pomoći ljudima.

Dvije metrike koje su posebno korisne u trenutnim tržišnim uvjetima:

The MVRV Z-Score is an important and widely used metric for Bitcoin. It shows the extremes of Bitcoin price moving above or below its realized price. Realized price is the average cost basis of all Bitcoin purchased. So it can be thought of as an approximate break-even level for the market. Price only ever dips below that level in extreme bear market conditions.

Kada se to dogodi, indikator na ovom grafikonu pada u zelenu zonu „akumulacije“. Trenutno smo u toj zoni, što sugeriše da bi ovo mogli biti veoma dobri nivoi za strateškog dugoročnog investitora da akumulira više Bitcoina.

Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score grafikon. Izvor: LookIntoBitcoin

The Puell Multiple Looks at miner revenues versus their historical norms. When the indicator dips into the green accumulation band, like it is now, it shows many miners are under significant stress. This often occurs at major cycle lows for Bitcoin. This indicator suggests we are close to a major cycle low for Bitcoin if we have not already bottomed.

Bitcoin Puell višestruki grafikon. Izvor: LookIntoBitcoin

Your fellow analyst Filbfilb expects BTC to reverse course in Q1 2023. Do you agree?

PS: Yes, I do. I think traditional markets probably have a bit more downturn going into early 2023. At worst, I see crypto having a tough time until then, so probably another 2–3 months max. But I think the majority of fear will soon switch toward governments and their currencies — rightly so. Therefore I do expect private assets like Bitcoin to outperform in 2023 and surprise many of the doomers who are saying Bitcoin has failed and is going to zero.

October is a historically bad month for stocks — not so much for Bitcoin. How long do you expect BTC to be in lockstep with risk-on assets and what will be the catalyst?

PS: Bitcoin has been a useful forward-looking risk indicator for the markets throughout much of 2022. What will change in 2023 is that market participants will appreciate [that] most of the risk in fact lies with governments, not with traditionally defined “risk” assets. As a result, I expect a narrative shift that will benefit Bitcoin next year.

The actions of the United Kingdom’s government around their mini-budget two weeks ago were a key turning point for that potential narrative shift. Markets showed they were prepared to show their disapproval of poor policy and incompetence. I expect that trend to accelerate not only for the U.K. but in other countries also.

Are you surprised at Ethereum’s poor performance post-Merge? Are you bullish on ETH longer term with its supply-burning mechanisms?

PS: ETH had a strong short-term narrative with the Merge, but it was within the context of a global bear market. So it is not surprising that its price performance has been lackluster. Ultimately, the overall market conditions dominated, which was to be expected.

Long term, though, Ethereum is set up to do exceptionally well. It is a critical component of Web3, which is growing exponentially. So I am very bullish on Ethereum over the next couple of years.

What is the best jurisdiction for a Bitcoin/ crypto trader today?

PS: Somewhere that is low-tax and crypto-friendly. I personally think Singapore is great and there is a growing crypto scene here, which is good fun too. I have friends who are in Bali, which also sounds great and is more affordable.

Anything you would like to add?

PS: Resist any temptation to quit crypto near the bottom of the bear market. Just be patient and use some good tools to help manage your emotions.

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